{
  "version": "1.0",
  "checked": "2026-10-21",
  "scope": "Focused secondary evidence review; no original catch records, no local redfish forecast, no pooled meta-analysis.",
  "core_source": {
    "author": "J. R. Pulver",
    "year": 2017,
    "url": "https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59593/noaa_59593_DS1.pdf",
    "doi": "10.1080/02755947.2017.1293574",
    "locators": "Table 1 p.538; Table 2 p.540; Table 3 p.545; methods pp.537–540; discussion pp.543–548",
    "read_scope": "Full main paper; supplemental figures/tables not independently acquired"
  },
  "gulf_rows": [
    {
      "id": "longline-red-grouper",
      "gear": "Bottom longline",
      "species": "Red grouper",
      "captures": 271978,
      "sets": 5866,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 73.06,
      "lunar_p": "<0.001",
      "aic_reduction": 36.19,
      "pattern": "Higher near new moon"
    },
    {
      "id": "longline-yellowedge",
      "gear": "Bottom longline",
      "species": "Yellowedge grouper",
      "captures": 20732,
      "sets": 1386,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 20.61,
      "lunar_p": "0.317",
      "aic_reduction": -0.62,
      "pattern": "No detected lunar association"
    },
    {
      "id": "longline-tilefish",
      "gear": "Bottom longline",
      "species": "Tilefish",
      "captures": 19104,
      "sets": 487,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 55.43,
      "lunar_p": "<0.001",
      "aic_reduction": 13.82,
      "pattern": "Higher before full moon; additional waning rise"
    },
    {
      "id": "longline-total",
      "gear": "Bottom longline",
      "species": "All species (overlaps species rows)",
      "captures": 418169,
      "sets": 7520,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 85.15,
      "lunar_p": "<0.001",
      "aic_reduction": 31.96,
      "pattern": "Higher near new moon"
    },
    {
      "id": "vertical-vermilion",
      "gear": "Vertical line",
      "species": "Vermilion snapper",
      "captures": 106359,
      "sets": 8144,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 77.57,
      "lunar_p": "0.461",
      "aic_reduction": -0.16,
      "pattern": "No detected GAM association; periodic GLM failed to converge"
    },
    {
      "id": "vertical-red-snapper",
      "gear": "Vertical line",
      "species": "Red snapper",
      "captures": 74191,
      "sets": 7049,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 123.83,
      "lunar_p": "0.463",
      "aic_reduction": 0.18,
      "pattern": "No detected lunar association"
    },
    {
      "id": "vertical-red-grouper",
      "gear": "Vertical line",
      "species": "Red grouper",
      "captures": 72225,
      "sets": 22312,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 139.94,
      "lunar_p": "<0.001",
      "aic_reduction": 28.7,
      "pattern": "Higher near quarter phases; lower near new/full"
    },
    {
      "id": "vertical-total",
      "gear": "Vertical line",
      "species": "All species (overlaps species rows)",
      "captures": 485125,
      "sets": 37247,
      "mean_cpue_per_1000_hooks": 229.76,
      "lunar_p": "<0.001",
      "aic_reduction": 30.8,
      "pattern": "Higher near quarter phases; lower near new/full"
    }
  ],
  "contrasts": [
    {
      "id": "longline",
      "gear": "Bottom longline",
      "comparison": "New moon / full moon",
      "coefficient": 1.073,
      "lower": 1.1025,
      "upper": 1.203409,
      "power": 2,
      "term": "cos(theta)",
      "source": "Pulver Table 3, p.545; exponentiated coefficient and 95% limits",
      "coefficient_lower": 1.05,
      "coefficient_upper": 1.097,
      "ratio": 1.1513289999999998
    },
    {
      "id": "vertical",
      "gear": "Vertical line",
      "comparison": "Quarter moon / new moon",
      "coefficient": 0.964,
      "lower": 1.0244390171941844,
      "upper": 1.1317338162064283,
      "power": -2,
      "term": "cos(2 theta)",
      "source": "Pulver Table 3, p.545; exponentiated coefficient and 95% limits",
      "coefficient_lower": 0.94,
      "coefficient_upper": 0.988,
      "ratio": 1.0760834007678932
    }
  ],
  "recreational_context": [
    {
      "citation": "Millar et al. (1997), MEPS 151:219–224",
      "url": "https://www.int-res.com/articles/meps/151/m151p219.pdf",
      "read_scope": "Full paper",
      "species": "Pagrus auratus (New Zealand snapper; not Louisiana red snapper)",
      "trips": 5032,
      "fishers": 923,
      "recorded_zero_trips": 1384,
      "days_fished": 349,
      "scope": "Boat rod/handline, solely snapper-targeted trips; December 1993–November 1994",
      "finding": "Seasonal trend explained 30% of daily CPUE variation; lunar/calendar terms each explained no more than 2% of seasonally detrended variation. Not a Louisiana effect estimate.",
      "limits": "Unsuccessful diary trips under-reported; no trip-level weather, exact location or time of day. Do not assume all 1384 zeros exhaust failed outings."
    },
    {
      "citation": "Stevenson & Millar (2013), Environmental and Ecological Statistics 20:591–608",
      "url": "https://research-portal.st-andrews.ac.uk/en/publications/promising-the-moon-evaluation-of-indigenous-and-lunar-fishing-cal/",
      "read_scope": "Author university abstract only; full paper not obtained",
      "species": "Pagrus auratus, New Zealand",
      "finding": "Abstract reports a lunar association and support for some calendar predictions, with small effects and questioned practical relevance; accounts for season, fisher, effort, day and biomass.",
      "limits": "Do not extract effect sizes or independent sample counts from this abstract. Possible overlap with earlier records; not counted as an independent replication."
    }
  ],
  "total_observed_sets": 44767
}