{
  "id": "grand-isle-wind-2025-v1",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "selected_lag_hours": 12,
  "scope": "Grand Isle station 8761724, 2025; held-out observed-weather residual estimation; no causal or catch inference",
  "source_records": {
    "wind": 8760,
    "pressure": 8760,
    "observed": 8760,
    "predicted": 8760
  },
  "expected_hours": 8760,
  "common_hours": 8693,
  "excluded_hours": 67,
  "valid_weather_hours": {
    "wind": 8752,
    "pressure": 8755
  },
  "exclusion_reason_counts_overlapping": {
    "wind_unavailable_lag_3": 11,
    "wind_unavailable_lag_6": 14,
    "wind_unavailable_lag_12": 20,
    "wind_unavailable_lag_24": 32,
    "previous_target_unavailable": 3,
    "pressure_missing_or_flagged": 5,
    "wind_unavailable_lag_0": 8,
    "target_missing_or_flagged": 2
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  "splits": {
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      "expected_hours": 4272,
      "admitted_hours": 4232
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    "validation": {
      "expected_hours": 2136,
      "admitted_hours": 2110
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    "test": {
      "expected_hours": 2208,
      "admitted_hours": 2208
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  "boundary_gap_common_hours": 143,
  "candidate_validation_scores": [
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        "bias_ft": -9.842998082215471e-17
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        "bias_ft": 1.4397221075479345e-16
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        "bias_ft": 3.3159780319617154e-17
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        "bias_ft": 7.009725713134259e-17
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        "bias_ft": -9.87712665406425e-05
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        "bias_ft": -0.13956249999999998
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  "wind_increment_mae_reduction_percent": 3.8663855489650123,
  "paired_block_interval_ft": {
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    "24": [
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      "selection": "highest_daily_test_residual",
      "date": "2025-10-05",
      "hours": 24,
      "mean_residual_ft": 1.1081666666666667,
      "mean_wind_eastward_knots": -10.993984275414272,
      "mean_wind_northward_knots": 0.03207703945805562,
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      "selection": "lowest_daily_test_residual",
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      "mean_wind_speed_knots": 10.424166666666666,
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      "month": "2025-01",
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  "source_provenance": {
    "protocol": "grand-isle-wind-2025-v1",
    "sources": [
      {
        "file": "wind.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?station=8761724&begin_date=20250101&end_date=20251231&units=english&time_zone=gmt&format=json&interval=h&application=LouisianaDeepSeaFishingResearch&product=wind",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:39:37.664Z",
        "sha256": "b0747ec0a848670b009fe768717eca42ac45efb3ffe05c3a65b9b8848451a942",
        "bytes": 738962
      },
      {
        "file": "air_pressure.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?station=8761724&begin_date=20250101&end_date=20251231&units=english&time_zone=gmt&format=json&interval=h&application=LouisianaDeepSeaFishingResearch&product=air_pressure",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:39:38.896Z",
        "sha256": "a20314b621eb2defa23eeaa2ecc4be5150fb2f4eabccc40309bb684973bfb21d",
        "bytes": 455580
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      {
        "file": "sensors.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/mdapi/prod/webapi/stations/8761724/sensors.json",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:39:39.004Z",
        "sha256": "06a35eb3abf220008007a5df19afd0ee5d62a5b1b2cce4cbb7cfbfa9fba4194f",
        "bytes": 1383
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      {
        "file": "station.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/mdapi/prod/webapi/stations/8761724.json",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:39:39.079Z",
        "sha256": "99438003fe4d52ce34db0aabf10087cb379e33fef8af493cf803e8bbcdd3e10d",
        "bytes": 2634
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      {
        "file": "observations.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?station=8761724&begin_date=20250101&end_date=20251231&datum=MLLW&units=english&time_zone=gmt&format=json&application=LouisianaDeepSeaFishingResearch&product=hourly_height",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:22:38.957Z",
        "sha256": "be3c69d2df3280d2f54d2942c1b7d3614434e1111ac2cfa9810502bd9271d6c3",
        "bytes": 540569,
        "reuse": "Unchanged retained full-year study input"
      },
      {
        "file": "predictions.json",
        "url": "https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/datagetter?station=8761724&begin_date=20250101&end_date=20251231&datum=MLLW&units=english&time_zone=gmt&format=json&application=LouisianaDeepSeaFishingResearch&product=predictions&interval=h",
        "retrievedAt": "2026-10-21T20:22:39.232Z",
        "sha256": "07fc621fc0e0356127083c73338a775358e75b9c15e4750af28c34b3e49819b1",
        "bytes": 333478,
        "reuse": "Unchanged retained full-year study input"
      }
    ],
    "attribution": "Source weather observations and station metadata: NOAA CO-OPS. Analysis: Louisiana Deep Sea Fishing. No NOAA endorsement.",
    "rights": "https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/disclaimers.html",
    "reuseNote": "NOAA CO-OPS public-domain source material, with attribution; no third-party restriction noted in these API responses. Our calculations are separately identified."
  },
  "protocol": {
    "id": "grand-isle-wind-2025-v1",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "fixedBeforeFitting": "2026-10-21",
    "station": "8761724",
    "period": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z/2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
    "target": "Retained annual quality-screened observed minus predicted height, ft MLLW, exact UTC hour",
    "weather": "NOAA CO-OPS wind and air_pressure, interval=h, units=english, time_zone=gmt. On-the-hour six-minute weather observations, not hourly averages. Wind knots; pressure millibars (hPa).",
    "quality": "Exact hour; finite numeric values; wind s>=0 and 0<=d<=360 with f=0,0; pressure v>0 with f=0,0,0. No interpolation. Duplicate/off-grid/out-of-period timestamps and wrong station fail. Calm speed zero permits missing direction with valid flags; components zero.",
    "lagsHours": [
      0,
      3,
      6,
      12,
      24
    ],
    "commonSample": "Target eligible; current pressure; wind at every candidate lag; previous-hour target for persistence benchmark. All models compared on identical hours. Report exclusion reasons on all 8760 hours.",
    "split": {
      "trainStart": "2025-01-01",
      "trainEndExclusive": "2025-06-28",
      "validationStart": "2025-07-01",
      "validationEndExclusive": "2025-09-28",
      "testStart": "2025-10-01",
      "testEndExclusive": "2026-01-01",
      "boundaryGapHours": 72
    },
    "models": "OLS with intercept. Season: annual sine/cosine with 8760-hour period. Pressure: current (mb-1013.25)/10. Wind: eastward=-s*sin(d), northward=-s*cos(d), one candidate lag. Compare zero correction (tide alone), training mean, season, season+pressure, season+wind, season+pressure+wind and previous-hour residual persistence. No test-period fit or refit.",
    "selection": "Choose one lag by validation MAE of season+pressure+wind; ties use first listed lag. Keep training-only coefficients fixed; report all candidate validation errors and final test comparisons at selected lag. No selection by test results.",
    "primaryComparison": "Test MAE reduction adding wind to season+pressure, in feet and percent; report RMSE and signed mean error (estimate minus observation) too. Same-hour residual estimation with observed weather, not future-weather forecasting or causality.",
    "uncertainty": "Paired circular moving-block bootstrap of test per-hour absolute-error improvement on full test grid; retain missing rows; 72-hour blocks, 2000 draws, seed 8761724; 24-hour sensitivity. Percentile 2.5/97.5 bounds are within-this-period descriptive resampling, not population/climate confidence.",
    "episodes": "Illustrate highest and lowest test-period daily mean residual among UTC days with at least 20 eligible common-sample hours. Show +/-48h context and explain selection on target extrema, not typicality or model fit.",
    "limits": "Single station and year; observational, autocorrelated; simple annual harmonic trained on half-year is an imperfect seasonal control, so also report mean and pressure controls. No river, offshore wind field, sensor-height adjustment or historical maintenance control. No catch, current, access-depth or safety conclusion. Independent scientific review pending."
  },
  "software": {
    "python": "3.11+",
    "numpy": "2.5.4"
  },
  "review_status": "Local review; independent scientific review not performed"
}